The Guardian examines potential consequences of US president’s market chaos, which could reach every corner of global finance and economy.
Donald Trump may have stepped back from his huge tariff rises on every country, except China, which now faces at least 145%, but the impact of the market chaos is likely to continue in the UK and beyond. The rest of the world still faces a blanket 10% tariff on all US exports.
While much of the focus has been the direct impact of the tariffs on physical goods, Trump’s actions threaten to reach every corner of global finance and the economy.
The potential consequences of the tariffs and the fallout are examined, from derailing deals and further undermining London’s stock exchange, to risking a rise in corruption and pushing up prices for consumers.
The leading economic forecasters have yet to give their verdict, but the International Monetary Fund has already said the trade war will damage trade and business investment in most countries.
China could fail to meet its 5% growth target for 2025, while Germany could be pushed into recession. The UK is likely to escape relatively unscathed in terms of trade. UK goods exports to the US are significant, but businesses are expected to minimise the impact of tariffs, leading to a modest 0.1 percentage point reduction in UK GDP this year. However, with borrowing costs still high and consumer confidence at risk, the tariffs present a significant headache for Keir Starmer.
